Not very far down. With 120 places, they usually invite 20% more first round (this 20% will get a non-guaranteed interview, a few friends had that, and all got spots in Feb/March). Some get reclined, some move elsewhere, then maybe another 10-15 kids tops in a 2nd round. Also kids can move down the waiting list. Once a child with a sibling gets a spot in a certain year, the other sibling gets priority and can overtake another child. Same for inter-ESF transfers, kids of teachers, etc. So even if you're number 10 or 15, it doesn't mean a lot. If I transfer my kids to e.g. Glenealy, they'll get priority and push down some other kids. In general over a full school year, including summer, I don't think you can't expect more than 10-20 kids to leave (and that's for a 4-form school, 120 kids in a year). Some people on the list might have found a spot elsewhere, others may be waiting at their 2nd choice and move immediately once given an interview. Do you know where you are on the list? I've had several (non-Asian, native speakers) friends who were way down (around place 100) and it's highly unlikely they'll get a spot anytime soon. I have another friend who's in the top 30 and even then they told her it's unlikely to get spot within a year.